Bayesian Statistics — Overview
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Textbook: Johnson, A. A., Ott, M. Q., & Dogucu, M. (2022). Bayes Rules! An Introduction to Applied Bayesian Modeling. Chapman & Hall / CRC. Free online: https://www.bayesrulesbook.com.
Slides — 2026
| Date | Lecture | Topics | Slides |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jun | Lecture 1 — Introduction & Bayes’ Rule (Alexandra Sarafoglou) | Bayesian vs frequentist; probability; Bayes’ rule (Ch. 1–2) | |
| 3 Jun | Lecture 2 — The Beta-Binomial Model & Sequential Testing (Alexandra Sarafoglou) | Beta prior; Binomial likelihood; conjugacy; sequential updating (Ch. 3–4) | |
| 8 Jun | Lecture 3 — Conjugate Models & Choosing Your Prior | Conjugacy; prior selection (Ch. 5) | link |
| 10 Jun | Lecture 4 — Obtaining the Posterior: Grid Approximation & MCMC | Grid + MCMC (Ch. 6 & 7) | link |
| 15 Jun | Lecture 5 — Using the Posterior: Inference, Prediction & Hypothesis Testing | Estimation; prediction; Bayes factors (Ch. 8) | link |
| 17 Jun | Lecture 6 — Reporting Guidelines & Exam Preparation | Reporting; two mock exams; study checklist | link |
Contact
For questions, errata or suggestions, email Johnny van Doorn at j.b.vandoorn@uva.nl.